LNG Chain Availability Using Bayesian Estimation of Reliability Rates
||SMATI A. (Université de Boumerdès, Faculté des hydrocarbures(1))
YOUNSI K. (Université de Boumerdès, Faculté des hydrocarbures(1))
ZERAIBI N. (Université de Boumerdès, Faculté des hydrocarbures(1))
ZEMMOUR N. (Université de Boumerdès, Faculté des hydrocarbures(1))
LNG plants are characterized by their relatively low number in the world, diversity of processes involved, very high investment and operating costs. The fuel consumption of this type of facilities (about 15%) may double in given cases, when the frequency of untimely and volunteer shut downs is high. Then, the improvment of the reliability of the LNG chain in its overall will lead objectivly to substantial decrease of energy costs. For reparable systems, availability is more often used as reliability indicator. In reliability point of vue, the LNG chain must be assimilated to a unique complex system. However, modeling of complex systems, in reliability point of vue or other, is always difficult in relation with the large dimensions of the space of phases. In this paper, a systemic approach is used to reduce the space of phases. A representation of subsystems by reliability diagrams permit a more easy calculation of probabilities associated with every phase. A bottom up technique allows the reconstitution of the global model of reliability of the chain. In an environment characterized by its weakness in statistical data, a Bayesian estimation approach is used to define the failure and repare rates of different equipments composing the LNG chain. Some results concerning Algerian LNG chain Hassi R'mel-Skikda are furnished.